MacroExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Probability

6¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$563.52

Liquidity

$12.3K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
finance.yahoo.com
Link
finance.yahoo.com
Type
Source not classified
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.5pp 7d
May 5, 2026, 04:00May 12, 2026, 03:31
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-12T03-31Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $12.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1192.5h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 5d ago (to 8¢).

Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
  • 3d ago · -3.5pp → 7¢
  • 3d ago · -4.0pp → 8¢
  • 4d ago · -4.0pp → 7¢
  • 4d ago · -4.0pp → 7¢
  • 4d ago · -4.0pp → 7¢
  • 4d ago · -4.0pp → 7¢
  • 4d ago · -4.5pp → 8¢
  • 5d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?
Category · Macro

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Macro

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

s&p 500

Reason

S&P 500 equity-index market — Macro / Markets.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?"?

As of Tue, 12 May 2026 03:31:48 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -6.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$563.52 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $35.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $12.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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