Probable-Peek
0x19ec20af72f6910749c78397ceadf3ae02a924c0
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$7.69
Total PnL
$-7.98
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.14
$0.01
- NO
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $130?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$1.34
$-0.02
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 98.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.23
$-0.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.07
$0.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.05
$0.00
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.86
$-0.37
- NO
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?
6 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-2.03
- YES
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?
3 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-2.03
- YES
Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
3 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.53
- NO
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $130?$1.36Jul 5, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$2.44Jul 1, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.24Jun 28, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$1.26Jun 28, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$1.17Jun 28, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.15Jun 23, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?$1.12Jun 13, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.15Jun 13, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?$1.12Jun 13, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$2.13May 30, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$1.05May 9, 03:02 UTC
- REDEEMKRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?$1.08May 9, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.07May 9, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$1.05Apr 30, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYKRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?$1.08Apr 29, 08:35 UTC
- REDEEM$1.07Apr 29, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.05Apr 29, 00:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?$1.02Apr 14, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?$1.36Apr 14, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$1.49Apr 14, 08:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 13, 00:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 08:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.