Deserted-Cottage
0x19f83e2cd86e19468acb5a3621971d2ba662fa4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
63
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-534.71
Realised
$4.16
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
219 shares @ 91.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$202.34
$2.34
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
1375 shares @ 13.1¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$130.61
$-49.39
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
134 shares @ 89.5¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$124.49
$4.49
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
109 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.46
$4.46
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
269 shares @ 37.2¢·now 33.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$89.65
$-10.35
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
365 shares @ 24.6¢·now 23.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$84.25
$-5.75
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
67 shares @ 17.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$54.76
$43.40
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
20243 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$30.36
$-107.79
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
3519 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$26.39
$-23.60
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 62.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.81
$0.81
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 7, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?$25.00Jun 6, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump praise Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by April 30?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$70.00Jun 6, 13:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $36.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.