Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Probability
37¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$362.30
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 37¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 35¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.4pp
to 35¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 35¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 37¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.6pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 42¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2025
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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