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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2025

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Probability

37¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$362.30

Liquidity

$1.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 04:00Apr 25, 2026, 03:17
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 03:18Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -7.3pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -6.4pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.4pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.1pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.1pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.2pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.7pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.6pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.6pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.4pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.1pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.2pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.8pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.9pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.1pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2025
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (4.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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