Bare-Bachelor
0x1a86c337d3e7da2b32031cf51190263c317d4683
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$6.46
Total PnL
$-537.99
Realised
$-34.90
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
62 shares @ 16.2¢·now 10.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$6.46
$-3.54
- NO
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil by November 30?
27078 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-142.62
- YES
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
1400 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-114.48
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?
840 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?
603 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Maduro out in 2025?
181 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.34
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?
125 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.12
- YES
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?
115 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?
27 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$10.00Apr 9, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$10.45Apr 9, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?$2.12Feb 11, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$2.15Feb 11, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$1.99Feb 9, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?$1.99Feb 8, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?$300.01Feb 2, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?$21.48Feb 2, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?$6.00Feb 2, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?$15.40Feb 2, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?$100.00Feb 2, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?$20.00Feb 2, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?$20.00Feb 2, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$50.00Feb 2, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?$50.00Feb 2, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?$100.00Jan 31, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January?$100.00Jan 31, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?$424.36Jan 31, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?$52.69Jan 31, 01:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $85 by end of February?$25.29Jan 31, 01:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $86.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 18, 12:00 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 9, 19:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.