Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$642.24
Liquidity
$29.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3877.1h
- 10:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3877h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 8¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 8¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 8¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).