0x1a8f752534a1b74a764001f0a225bbf1ef882cd1
0x1a8f752534a1b74a764001f0a225bbf1ef882cd1
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$76.99
Total PnL
$-89.44
Realised
$-0.94
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Athletics
10 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$9.84
$5.51
- YES
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
27 shares @ 18.8¢·now 21.4¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.69
$0.69
- NO
Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$5.34
$0.34
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.22
$0.31
- LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$5.13
$2.87
- MAKS KASNIKOWSKI
Iasi: Pedro Martinez vs Maks Kasnikowski
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.00
$1.95
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
12 shares @ 42.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.82
$-0.06
- NO
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 38.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$4.82
$2.96
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
10 shares @ 47.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.53
$-0.36
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 24?
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.77
$-1.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$5.06Jul 23, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$5.82Jul 23, 14:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$5.94Jul 23, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 25?$3.02Jul 23, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$4.10Jul 23, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 24?$5.07Jul 23, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.20 in July?$3.64Jul 23, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$4.88Jul 23, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$6.48Jul 23, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$5.08Jul 23, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$5.08Jul 23, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 25?$4.02Jul 23, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 26?$4.17Jul 23, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 27?$2.90Jul 23, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$4.89Jul 23, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.20 in July?$3.34Jul 22, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 27?$2.66Jul 22, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 26?$3.98Jul 22, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 20-26?$3.25Jul 22, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 25?$3.98Jul 22, 07:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $4.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 12:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 14:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.