Surprised-Grouse
0x1ae38dee1baf953b9877e4d768019318eb302d7d
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$69.13
Total PnL
$-8.40
Realised
$173.42
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
24 shares @ 84.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.55
$1.55
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
21 shares @ 93.2¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.59
$0.59
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.88
$-8.13
- NO
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
10 shares @ 95.7¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.18
$0.18
- NO
Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
23 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.10
$-2.90
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
13 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.08
$-4.92
- YES
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
8 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
1001 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-23.00
- NO
ChatGPT Outage by April 10?
88 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?$3.08Jun 13, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?$3.06Jun 13, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?$5.09Jun 13, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$5.12Jun 7, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$29.17Jun 7, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$3.90Jun 7, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$3.06Jun 6, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$1.03Jun 6, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$1.03Jun 6, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$3.08Jun 5, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$3.08Jun 5, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$3.06Jun 5, 23:28 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$12.20May 13, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?$2.05May 10, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?$2.05May 10, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?$2.05May 10, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?$3.06May 10, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$20.07May 10, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?$2.06Apr 29, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?$2.06Apr 29, 21:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $13.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 23, 16:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 06:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.