CryptoExpires Jan 1, 2027

Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?

Probability

14¢

1h

-2.5pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 26, 2026, 00:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6004h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 8.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6004.1h

    LOW
  • 00:53Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 6004h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at 23:00 (to 20¢).

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if BIP-360 is implemented on the Bitcoin network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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