Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?
Probability
14¢
1h
-2.5pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 14¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6004h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6004.1h
- 00:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6004h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at 23:00 (to 20¢).
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if BIP-360 is implemented on the Bitcoin network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.