0x1ae6b22919f27567967cfbe2274889477fb82fc1
0x1ae6b22919f27567967cfbe2274889477fb82fc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$453.34
Total PnL
$-53.88
Realised
$5.09
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
75 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$74.78
$54.59
- NO
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
51 shares @ 78.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$51.12
$10.99
- YES
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
43 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$43.02
$22.80
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
78 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$39.23
$-1.17
- YES
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
34 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$34.18
$14.36
- NO
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
31 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$31.00
$10.85
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
28 shares @ 70.8¢·now 76.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$21.52
$1.51
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
26 shares @ 75.9¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$21.08
$1.07
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
39 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.47
$-0.72
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 38.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.20
$7.07
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.