Which-Difficulty
0x1b62190cd0c7a77e65d3caf70fc5ec482613b6a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.59
Total PnL
$-829.49
Realised
$4.06
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
20 shares @ 33.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$5.50
$-1.10
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
97 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.68
$-4.41
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
57 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.20
$-2.78
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?
117 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.17
$-5.97
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?
97 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.10
$-4.99
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?
57 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.09
$-2.90
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?
117 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.06
$-6.08
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?
117 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.06
$-6.08
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?
117 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.06
$-6.08
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?
117 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.06
$-6.08
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16?$40.07Jun 16, 18:32 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed Decision in July?$0.14Jun 16, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15?$0.16Jun 16, 02:57 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.36Jun 16, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$12.00Jun 16, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15?$120.12Jun 15, 23:51 UTC
- CONVERSIONWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?$1.58Jun 15, 23:07 UTC
- CONVERSIONWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?$38.38Jun 15, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15?$76.26Jun 15, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.60Jun 15, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$9.00Jun 15, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15?$59.78Jun 15, 21:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15?$79.35Jun 15, 21:54 UTC
- CONVERSIONWhich company has second best AI model end of June?$20.00Jun 15, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$3.10Jun 15, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$19.98Jun 15, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$19.98Jun 15, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$19.96Jun 15, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$19.98Jun 15, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$19.04Jun 15, 19:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $18.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 18:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 16, 18:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.