Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
Probability
78¢
1h
+5.5pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$132.97
Liquidity
$584.76
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 78¢; +5.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1449h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1448.7h
- 15:20SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1449h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 78¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 72¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 79¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 73¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 81¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 81¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 80¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 80¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 78¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 74¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 78¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 73¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 78¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 73¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 73¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 73¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 75¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 74¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 69¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the player selected with the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft. If the 2026 NBA draft is cancelled or the first pick is not definitively known by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, including the live broadcast of the 2026 NBA draft.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).