Happy-Tolerant
0x1b86d3971acde61eca4248de8fe57064ae1c0a14
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
161
Open notional
$0.32
Total PnL
$-193.50
Realised
$2.75
Win rate
48%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 161- NO
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
1 shares @ 17.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.31
$0.08
- YES
Will Brett Hulsey win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
20 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?
5247 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-11.39
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 1, 2026?
965 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.27
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 16, 2026?
934 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 18?
884 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.94
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by March 31, 2026?
880 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.14
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 5, 2026?
717 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.92
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 20, 2026?
693 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.97
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 18?
654 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.98
Recent activity
- TRADESELLExtended FDV above $150M one day after launch?$1.06Feb 21, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?$0.71Feb 20, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?$1.34Feb 20, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karmine Corp win the LEC 2026 Versus?$0.00Feb 20, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karmine Corp win the LEC 2026 Versus?$1.06Feb 20, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Shit" or "Ass" this week? (February 22)$1.71Feb 20, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$0.80Feb 20, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?$0.11Feb 20, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?$1.56Feb 20, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$0.98Feb 20, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?$0.63Feb 20, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$0.47Feb 20, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$1.02Feb 20, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 21?$0.40Feb 20, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 21?$0.87Feb 20, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 19?$9.43Feb 20, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.23Feb 20, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?$0.91Feb 20, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026?$0.72Feb 20, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026?$0.27Feb 20, 14:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 18, 04:52 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 21, 01:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.