Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.7h
- 12:17SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5988h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
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