Accurate-Guidance
0x1bc1919f55edfef9a7ff4d649239cc40218989e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-129.80
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5000 shares @ 35.0¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$967.50
$-782.50
- NO
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$500.00
$250.00
- NO
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
368 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$368.46
$184.23
- NO
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?
100 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$100.00
$27.00
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
98 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$87.15
$1.48
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
181 shares @ 45.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$71.31
$-9.93
- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2100 shares @ 5.4¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.94
$-68.56
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
100 shares @ 42.3¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$42.95
$0.65
- NO
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
24 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$23.89
$12.18
- YES
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 80.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.28
$1.77
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.10Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.