Ugly-Kill
0x1c134acf6411d3c799bff067a4a35b049e11ce0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
189
Open notional
$1.07
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$258.89
Win rate
43%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 189- YES
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
440 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.66
$-0.34
- YES
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
28 shares @ 3.6¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.31
$-0.69
- YES
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
40 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.10
$-0.90
- YES
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?
7000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?
6690 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-60.76
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
6512 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-13.10
- NO
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?
5666 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.99
- YES
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
5423 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-52.05
- NO
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4942 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$0.27Jun 4, 00:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
30 closed markets, 43% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $3.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 17, 01:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.