Improbable-Feature
0x1c335c7361bb791e180c3e17ad1308b1eebfab72
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$133.11
Total PnL
$-720.00
Realised
$-106.00
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
132 shares @ 38.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$30.92
$-19.08
- YES
Iran Nuke before 2027?
445 shares @ 9.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.29
$-11.71
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?
238 shares @ 4.2¢·now 7.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$17.14
$7.14
- YES
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
64 shares @ 25.2¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.33
$-6.90
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
86 shares @ 3.8¢·now 9.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.31
$5.03
- YES
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.71
$1.71
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
139 shares @ 14.4¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.03
$-13.97
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
32 shares @ 43.5¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.94
$-9.76
- YES
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
193 shares @ 7.8¢·now 1.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.47
$-11.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?$5.16Jul 2, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?$2.08Jul 2, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?$10.38Jul 2, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?$1.04Jun 27, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$14.37Jun 26, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.76Jun 21, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?$1.97Jun 18, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?$2.08Jun 18, 12:37 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.49Jun 18, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?$10.38Jun 5, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?$10.36Jun 4, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jun 4, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?$10.37Jun 4, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?$5.18Jun 2, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$5.18Jun 2, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?$10.31Jun 2, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?$5.17Jun 2, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?$5.18Jun 1, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran Nuke before 2027?$5.00Jun 1, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?$5.17May 30, 12:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $8.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 21:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 18:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.