Fatherly-Victim
0x1c708b8f85d1b58970dd8a57385a19b1792c4c51
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$558.51
Realised
$255.15
Win rate
100%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
505 shares @ 92.7¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$491.61
$23.31
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3000 shares @ 4.6¢·now 13.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$394.50
$256.50
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
275 shares @ 62.4¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$180.12
$8.43
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
190 shares @ 83.6¢·now 86.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$164.41
$5.52
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
150 shares @ 92.5¢·now 96.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$144.97
$6.23
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4000 shares @ 2.1¢·now 3.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$134.00
$50.00
- NO
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
144 shares @ 87.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$132.91
$7.29
- NO
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
155 shares @ 82.4¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$129.42
$1.73
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5000 shares @ 3.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$127.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
125 shares @ 76.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$100.22
$4.95
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$30.00Jul 29, 01:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?$39.05Jul 28, 07:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by 3–4%?$14.95Jul 28, 07:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by 2–3%?$6.86Jul 28, 07:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?$15.00Jul 26, 20:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barbara Kirkmeyer win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uloma Ekpete Kama win the GA-14 special election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Matt Barton win the GA-14 special election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by March 31?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Martin Momtahan win the GA-14 special election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jennifer Strahan win the GA-14 special election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trey Kelley win the GA-14 special election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kasey Carpenter win the GA-14 special election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marcus Flowers win the GA-14 special election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Clarence Blalock win the GA-14 special election?$0.00Jul 25, 16:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $37.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.