Puzzled-Soap
0x1c96fc49cecd35b12dcd478f10f23853c4a31a33
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$148.12
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$-2.0K
Win rate
0%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
137 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$137.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
11 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
2200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
1333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 19?
1021 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-260.18
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28?
1000 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-264.21
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?
989 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$137.01Aug 11, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-07-06?$4.08Jul 3, 10:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 1?$14.03Jul 3, 10:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2?$127.13Jul 3, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2?$127.01Jun 1, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers$3.15Jun 1, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In$6.90Jun 1, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.56May 31, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$4.00May 31, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In$4.05May 31, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 1?$14.00May 31, 05:47 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs$7.94May 31, 05:44 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$138.28May 31, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$138.00May 28, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$11.00May 28, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs$5.06May 28, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 6-8 times in May?$15.57May 28, 07:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?$139.14May 28, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?$139.01May 27, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 6-8 times in May?$15.56May 27, 12:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $67.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 08:37 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 07:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.