Reliable-Resemblance
0x1ca673bf92c715260cb67dca17c5c602f2898e5e
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$258.99
Total PnL
$-187.47
Realised
$-51.80
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
200 shares @ 54.9¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$195.90
$86.00
- NO
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
84 shares @ 41.3¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.59
$16.07
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
100 shares @ 18.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.50
$-5.50
- YES
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?
669 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
280 shares @ 30.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-84.80
- YES
Netanyahu out by June 30?
100 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
100 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-29.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
100 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-3.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 5?
100 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- YES
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?
70 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.66
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$6.61Jul 23, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$19.39Jul 23, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$11.02Jul 23, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$18.08Jul 23, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$54.80Jul 23, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$5.90Jul 22, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$65.64Jul 22, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$4.40Jul 22, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$1.00Jul 22, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$14.30Jul 22, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?$1.90Jul 19, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?$5.30Jul 19, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?$3.62Jul 19, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$96.69Jul 19, 03:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$1.00Jul 18, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?$0.15Jul 18, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?$0.13Jul 18, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?$0.23Jul 18, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?$0.20Jul 18, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on July 20?$1.20Jul 18, 13:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $17.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 21:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 17:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.