Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?
Probability
6¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-4.6pp
24h Vol
$100.42
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 6¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-5.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.7pp at 2d ago (to 12¢).
Show all 8 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -5.3pp → 6¢
- 15:00 · -7.8pp → 3¢
- 13:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -3.1pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · -3.1pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +3.1pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +8.1pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +8.7pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Danish government formed after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the monarch after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election, with ministers sworn in under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside the cabinet (e.g., through parliamentary support agreements or similar arrangements) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Denmark.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Official government informationOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.