OtherExpires Mar 24, 2026

Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Probability

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-4.6pp

24h Vol

$100.42

Liquidity

$1.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:56
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 9.5¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 17:56Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW

Price movement

-5.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: +8.7pp at 2d ago (to 12¢).

Show all 8 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · -5.3pp → 6¢
  • 15:00 · -7.8pp → 3¢
  • 13:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -3.1pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · -3.1pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +3.1pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +8.1pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +8.7pp → 12¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Danish government formed after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the monarch after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election, with ministers sworn in under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside the cabinet (e.g., through parliamentary support agreements or similar arrangements) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Denmark.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Mar 24, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Official government informationOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (9.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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