0x1ccb62b7fe5ca777e7a9f7a5b4dc982de3876902
0x1ccb62b7fe5ca777e7a9f7a5b4dc982de3876902
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$3.29
Total PnL
$-22.23
Realised
$-0.86
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
5 shares @ 59.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.29
$0.28
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-9.83
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
11 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
9 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.82
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$3.89Jul 30, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July?$4.28Jul 22, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$4.00Jul 16, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$3.98Jul 15, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$3.96Jul 14, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$10.25Jun 23, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway win on 2026-06-22?$7.84Jun 23, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$6.31Jun 22, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$3.33Jun 22, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$17.46Jun 22, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$5.14Jun 22, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-06-22?$3.51Jun 22, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$3.06May 29, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$3.63May 13, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.00May 13, 09:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $4.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 09:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 10:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.