Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 30¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 898h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $19.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.