Married-Rail
0x1d2568bb25b41c69d5b3de2b3c4aed06598f35cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$4.26
Total PnL
$-27.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.08
$1.07
- YES
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.59
$-0.41
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5 shares @ 36.9¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.57
$-1.43
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.02
$-0.98
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on August 18?
289 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?
23 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.03
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
21 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 23?
15 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 23, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$1.00Jun 10, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jun 10, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$2.38Jun 10, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMGemini 3.5 released by June 30?$4.01Jun 10, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by June 30?$1.02Apr 30, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by June 30?$1.02Apr 30, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$4.55Mar 1, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$1.00Jan 29, 15:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?$7.30Jan 29, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of January 2026?$3.80Jan 26, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$1.00Jan 25, 19:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$1.65Jan 25, 19:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 9?$1.39Jan 24, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?$2.38Jan 24, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of January 2026?$2.00Jan 24, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of January 2026?$2.00Jan 24, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?$1.00Jan 16, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?$1.00Jan 16, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.00Jan 16, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$1.00Jan 16, 14:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 31, 12:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 06:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.