Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify as a military engagement. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count as a military engagement; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify as a military engagement. Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify as a military engagement regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify as a military engagement (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB. 2. President Nicolás Maduro is NOT removed from power within the first 30 days after such an engagement ends, with no subsequent engagement occurring. President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe. A military engagement which occurs will be considered to have ended once no qualifying incidents occur for 24 consecutive hours following the initial engagement. The relevant thirty day period will begin on the calendar day following this 24 hours. If multiple military engagements occur, the 30-day period will be counted from the first day following the ending of the most recent engagement. If Maduro is removed from power prior to a qualifying military engagement occurring this market will immediately resolve to "No". Note: If a qualifying military engagement occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either Maduro is removed from power or a thirty day period has passed with no subsequent military engagements occurring. The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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