Intentional-Convention
0x1d2a47b6ec514a0fe26cb07a45cd4702b4647682
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
116
Open notional
$239.10
Total PnL
$-50.19
Realised
$-6.99
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- 100 THIEVES
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier
21 shares @ 14.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$21.41
$18.41
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
70 shares @ 13.8¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$16.04
$6.43
- YES
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
13 shares @ 45.4¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$12.61
$6.61
- NO
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
29 shares @ 45.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$9.46
$-3.64
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
12 shares @ 83.0¢·now 77.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.36
$-0.64
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
8 shares @ 84.6¢·now 78.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$6.08
$-0.49
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
22 shares @ 18.8¢·now 25.7¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$5.76
$1.55
- NO
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$5.54
$0.56
- YES
Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?
60 shares @ 4.1¢·now 8.5¢·exp Sep 28, 2026$5.07
$2.61
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
7 shares @ 59.8¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.04
$0.64
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$8.34Jul 22, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$2.05Jul 22, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.03Jul 22, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.03Jul 22, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.03Jul 22, 21:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on July 22?$23.01Jul 22, 21:01 UTC
- REDEEMGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 22?$5.81Jul 22, 20:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-07-22?$0.00Jul 22, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Qairat FK win on 2026-07-22?$1.20Jul 22, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMITF Evansville: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume$0.00Jul 22, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $123 Week of July 20 2026?$5.00Jul 22, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMITF Evansville: Whitney Osuigwe vs Kayla Cross$1.85Jul 22, 19:53 UTC
- REDEEMPFK Levski Sofia vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 0.5$0.00Jul 22, 19:49 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: HOTU vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier$0.00Jul 22, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5$3.07Jul 22, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$0.45Jul 22, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of July 20 2026?$6.01Jul 22, 19:33 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: UB Alma Mater vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season$0.00Jul 22, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYGoogle (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 19:29 UTC
- REDEEMEstoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga$9.36Jul 22, 19:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $1.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 14:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 21:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.