Good-Natured-Caution
0x1d48c4ab75b113e2765059eb0371d1e3c47fe891
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$31.15
Total PnL
$-14.85
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
13 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$13.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
7 shares @ 97.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$7.19
$0.19
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$5.26
$0.26
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
3 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$3.26
$0.26
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
2 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$2.30
$0.30
- NO
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
14 shares @ 93.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- NO
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?$100.20May 23, 05:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$5.05May 11, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?$100.02May 11, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$5.00May 11, 18:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$13.98May 11, 18:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$55.17May 11, 18:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$55.17May 11, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$34.28May 10, 00:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$29.82May 10, 00:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$27.83May 10, 00:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$7.40May 9, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$49.70May 9, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$25.31May 9, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$25.64May 9, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$0.99May 8, 02:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$199.00May 8, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$200.05May 6, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$200.06May 6, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$7.01May 6, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$5.01May 6, 20:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $39.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 05:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.