Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Light volume — move on a thin book

   Only $13.5k traded against $276.2k of visible liquidity (0.05× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.

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Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.