Exalted-Constellation
0x1d81cdc38f85cc76a9b05bba08e31813813d153a
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$3.23
Total PnL
$-46.07
Realised
$-0.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.27
$0.00
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 98.1¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$-0.02
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on January 17?
5353 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26?
2037 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.07
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 24?
1110 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.22
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8?
1106 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.32
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4?
1097 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.58
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 7?
1089 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 16?
1082 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on January 28?
1080 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.27Jul 3, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.19Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26?$4.07Jun 26, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12?$2.10Jun 12, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3?$2.10Jun 3, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.17Jun 2, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.14May 31, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 25?$2.10May 25, 01:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.22May 22, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.21May 21, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 16?$2.12May 16, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 13?$0.01May 13, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 13?$0.01May 13, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 7?$2.15May 7, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.14May 6, 05:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2?$1.1KMay 2, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?$3.22May 2, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2?$1.1KMay 2, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 1?$1.1KMay 2, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by April 30?$2.28May 1, 13:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $317.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 4, 03:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 08:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.