Wallet profile

Spirited-Chalice

0x1d854ccc47d157edd117732ba0be216b8876228e

activity 40/100

Wallet digest

Activity score

40/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

112

Open notional

$408.31

Total PnL

$-173.5K

Realised

$-40.48

Win rate

0%

4 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 112

Recent activity

  • YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

28/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 4 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record
review

4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity30 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence13 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry80 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk55 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
0
Avg trade size
$0.00
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 2, 00:12 UTC
Last active
Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
Win rate sample
4 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 20:56:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data