Polished-Research
0x1d8700b9c371e908a1de1595e42c080e5cd4f9f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$6.36
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$-664.40
Win rate
20%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.50
$-3.50
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$1.88
$-3.13
- YES
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1960 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.98
$-0.98
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
7615 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-382.77
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
6065 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-401.91
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
4304 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-286.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
4075 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
4022 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-316.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.28Jun 14, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$19.19Jun 13, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$5.00Jun 13, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.44Jun 11, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Macroeconomy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$0.64Jun 11, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$1.07Jun 11, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$49.41Jun 11, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$51.31Jun 11, 15:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$0.97Jun 11, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$0.93Jun 11, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$3.09Jun 11, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?$0.79Jun 11, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$1.01Jun 11, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?$1.04Jun 11, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.00Jun 11, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Macroeconomy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$2.07Jun 11, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?$33.39Jun 9, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$33.26Jun 9, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$70.62Jun 9, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$70.43Jun 9, 06:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $45.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 05:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 09:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.