Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.8pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$53.6K
Liquidity
$46.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 5¢; +0.8pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 3.0pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 74.2h
- 13:46SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 3.0pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 4¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 2¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 2¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 2¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 2¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 2¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 2¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 3¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 4¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 3¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 2¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 2¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 2¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.4pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 21 12:00 PM ET to April 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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