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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 28, 2026

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Probability

1h

+0.8pp

24h

+3.0pp

24h Vol

$53.6K

Liquidity

$46.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-9.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:46
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; +0.8pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 3.0pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 74.2h

    LOW
  • 13:46Signal

    Signal · Momentum up

    Probability moved up 3.0pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -5.6pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -5.7pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -7.9pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.1pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -15.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.6pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.9pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 21 12:00 PM ET to April 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).