Obedient-First
0x1daadf29233270499aad9d835fc5af1ff9d1e93d
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$1.65
Total PnL
$-710.56
Realised
$-199.27
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
30 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.65
$-1.35
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?
469 shares @ 26.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-123.37
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
367 shares @ 49.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-180.67
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
256 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.94
- YES
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on June 30, 2026?
220 shares @ 24.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-53.27
- YES
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.20 and $3.50 on June 30, 2026?
151 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-22.92
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
130 shares @ 77.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.50 on June 30, 2026?
101 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.83
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?
59 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-8.94
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?$7.91Jun 14, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$61.62Jun 12, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$3.63Jun 11, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on June 30, 2026?$24.90Jun 11, 01:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$12.55Jun 11, 01:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$12.55Jun 11, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$7.65Jun 11, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$11.65Jun 11, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$22.06Jun 11, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$13.50Jun 11, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$76.38Jun 11, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$19.83Jun 11, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?$28.75Jun 11, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?$134.93Jun 10, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?$12.13Jun 10, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?$22.18Jun 10, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?$30.00Jun 10, 11:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May?$107.28Jun 9, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?$44.76Jun 9, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?$92.88Jun 9, 21:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $19.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 12:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 08:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.