Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
Probability
59¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+6.0pp
24h Vol
$611.37
Liquidity
$4.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-19.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 59¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1566.1h
- 17:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+6.0pp over the last 24h, now 59¢.
Biggest hourly move: -22.5pp at 2d ago (to 57¢).
Show all 33 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -16.0pp → 59¢
- 15:00 · -15.5pp → 59¢
- 14:00 · -14.0pp → 59¢
- 12:00 · -11.5pp → 59¢
- 11:00 · -10.0pp → 59¢
- 09:00 · -10.5pp → 59¢
- 08:00 · -6.0pp → 59¢
- 06:00 · -4.5pp → 60¢
- 05:00 · -3.5pp → 61¢
- 03:00 · +11.0pp → 75¢
- 00:00 · -10.0pp → 54¢
- 23:00 · -11.0pp → 54¢
- 21:00 · -10.5pp → 54¢
- 20:00 · -10.5pp → 54¢
- 18:00 · -9.5pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · -9.5pp → 54¢
- 1d ago · -9.0pp → 54¢
- 1d ago · -9.5pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · -6.5pp → 54¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 54¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · -11.5pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · -11.5pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · -22.5pp → 57¢
- 2d ago · -21.0pp → 59¢
- 2d ago · -18.5pp → 60¢
- 2d ago · -17.5pp → 61¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 74¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the first check after it becomes availableAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowlmarena.ai
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.