Soggy-Twig
0x1dd197fa8bb4d6887ffecf89b75171aea7d7a156
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$24.0K
Total PnL
$-9.4K
Realised
$10.2K
Win rate
59%
96 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
2581 shares @ 59.8¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.9K
$404.22
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
2143 shares @ 72.7¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$49.37
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1585 shares @ 87.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.6K
$191.07
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
1542 shares @ 96.6¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.5K
$39.46
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
2098 shares @ 51.7¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.5K
$373.83
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
1400 shares @ 96.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.4K
$52.31
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1100 shares @ 98.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.1K
$18.55
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
858 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$855.41
$22.32
- NO
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
917 shares @ 92.1¢·now 86.9¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$796.54
$-48.06
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2940 shares @ 17.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$779.14
$280.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $42.96Jul 29, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$37.66Jul 29, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$48.50Jul 29, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$62.42Jul 29, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$99.30Jul 29, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$13.00Jul 29, 04:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $99.90Jul 29, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$5.80Jul 29, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$47.46Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$26.97Jul 29, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$13.44Jul 29, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$307.45Jul 29, 00:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$7.25Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$98.90Jul 28, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$1.18Jul 28, 23:09 UTC
- MERGEIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$100.00Jul 28, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$14.61Jul 28, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$69.00Jul 28, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$22.31Jul 28, 22:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 96 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
96 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $55.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 10:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 06:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 96 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.