Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+5.0pp
24h Vol
$5.5K
Liquidity
$46.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5991.7h
- 08:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5992h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 50¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 50¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 50¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 50¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 50¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 50¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 50¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 50¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 50¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 50¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 51¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 52¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 52¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 51¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 51¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 61¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 62¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 60¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $11.0M
- 9¢+3.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $3.6M
- 63¢+36.0pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.2M
- 35¢+6.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $878.7K
- 4¢-0.8pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $813.8K
- 31¢+26.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $800.5K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- Mushy-Buck6.8K
- Sandy-Courage6.5K
- Dearest-Agenda4.4K
- Vengeful-Netsuke2.3K
- Another-Photograph-Activist2.2K
- Dramatic-Sheep18.2K
- Adventurous-Poppy4.8K
- Untidy-Raise2.3K
- Elaborate-Cashier2.3K
- Hateful-Generation2.0K