Dear-Dynamite
0x1e9c5e57daee65a5fba0ca86b01651858f684148
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$17.30
Total PnL
$-16.14
Realised
$-0.04
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.19
$0.46
- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4 shares @ 55.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.13
$0.13
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
2 shares @ 76.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.85
$0.26
- NO
Will MUNDO-GB win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
2 shares @ 89.8¢·now 98.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$1.72
$0.15
- NO
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
2 shares @ 77.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.69
$-0.14
- NO
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by September 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.67
$-0.08
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.64
$0.06
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 88.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.58
$-0.05
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.45
$0.25
- NO
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
2 shares @ 96.8¢·now 84.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$1.38
$-0.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by September 30, 2026?$1.75Aug 13, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$1.58Aug 6, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYT20 Namibia Quadrangular Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Tanzania$1.91Jul 30, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Colombia by December 31?$1.83Jul 23, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?$1.64Jul 16, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.79Jul 16, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$1.59Jul 9, 09:34 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?$2.02Jul 9, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$1.41Jul 1, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMDow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 24?$1.71Jul 1, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMFrench election called by June 30, 2026?$1.84Jul 1, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYDow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 24?$1.59Jun 24, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?$1.87Jun 24, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?$1.48Jun 17, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?$1.83Jun 11, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.73Jun 3, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic$1.75May 27, 13:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on May 20?$1.60May 27, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on May 20?$1.50May 20, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$1.61May 13, 15:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $206.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 15:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 11:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.