French election called by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Up 3pp over 24h

   Now 5¢; -0.8pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 4.2¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.