Wallet digest

active

Activity score

73/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$6.95

Total PnL

$-0.05

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 18.8¢·now 20.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$1.07
$0.07
NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 95.8¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$1.01
$0.01
NO
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
1 shares @ 97.3¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$1.00
$0.00
NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026
$1.00
$-0.00
NO
Japanese parliament dissolved in 2026?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$0.99
$-0.01
YES
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026
$0.98
$-0.02
YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$0.90
$-0.10

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 17:02 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$0.00Jul 11, 16:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$1.07Jul 11, 16:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$2.07Jul 11, 16:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$1.03Jul 11, 16:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.49Jul 11, 16:17 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$0.00Jul 10, 13:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.03Jul 10, 13:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$0.00Jul 10, 13:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$1.05Jul 10, 13:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$1.07Jul 10, 13:27 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$0.00Jul 10, 13:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.49Jul 10, 13:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.03Jul 10, 13:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.05Jul 10, 08:01 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: France 1 - 0 Morocco?$0.00Jul 10, 08:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$1.35Jul 9, 14:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.67Jul 9, 14:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.03Jul 9, 14:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$1.02Jul 8, 18:57 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity65 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk46 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 26
Avg trade size: $1.07
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 8, 17:55 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 17:02 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:09:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data