0x1f7c00486001e9b7b98850f94da1df0bf61cd5ef
0x1f7c00486001e9b7b98850f94da1df0bf61cd5ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$16.75
Total PnL
$0.23
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 4, 2026?
12 shares @ 78.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$8.63
$-0.85
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
4 shares @ 46.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.75
$1.14
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.93
$-0.02
- YES
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.93
$-0.02
- YES
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
3 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.51
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on August 4, 2026?$9.48Jul 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMMastercard (MA) Q2 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 10.5%-11.5%?$2.72Jul 30, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill BGC Partners (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?$3.04Jul 30, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BGC Partners (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?$2.10Jul 30, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?$0.00Jul 29, 21:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?$12.50Jul 29, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$1.57Jul 29, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?$2.00Jul 29, 09:20 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$6.08Jul 28, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.61Jul 28, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Percent" 15+ times during Michigan remarks?$0.00Jul 27, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?$2.84Jul 26, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$2.00Jul 26, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Percent" 15+ times during Michigan remarks?$1.08Jul 25, 12:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$3.75Jul 25, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of July 20 2026?$2.02Jul 24, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$1.84Jul 24, 12:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$2.84Jul 24, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?$1.17Jul 24, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMastercard (MA) Q2 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 10.5%-11.5%?$2.03Jul 23, 12:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $2.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 12:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 17:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.