Glaring-Instance
0x1fcc97d92bccec98ab57be7f286c94425d77701b
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$984.44
Total PnL
$-6.9K
Realised
$80.36
Win rate
62%
58 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
195 shares @ 30.5¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$182.01
$122.39
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
118 shares @ 76.3¢·now 85.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$100.57
$10.28
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
98 shares @ 73.4¢·now 96.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$94.53
$22.71
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
188 shares @ 42.2¢·now 45.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$84.70
$5.32
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
208 shares @ 34.2¢·now 38.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.86
$8.65
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
83 shares @ 78.7¢·now 85.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$70.27
$5.19
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
201 shares @ 63.7¢·now 31.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$63.88
$-63.97
- YES
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
79 shares @ 47.2¢·now 68.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$54.09
$16.60
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
67 shares @ 75.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$46.66
$-3.33
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
59 shares @ 68.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$40.18
$0.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 30?$1.84Jul 30, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on July 30?$7.87Jul 30, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$8.05Jul 30, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 30?$3.98Jul 30, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 30?$14.93Jul 30, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$19.99Jul 30, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 30?$0.17Jul 30, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$18.41Jul 30, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?$10.00Jul 30, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?$9.99Jul 30, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Democrat" during Tele-Rallies?$14.72Jul 30, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$27.26Jul 30, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?$5.09Jul 30, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 31?$3.61Jul 30, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 30?$1.55Jul 30, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transparent" during cabinet meeting?$8.80Jul 30, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$50.96Jul 30, 02:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?$2.24Jul 30, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?$2.27Jul 30, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 30?$20.29Jul 30, 01:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
79/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 58 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
58 closed markets, 62% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $8.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 22:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 06:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 58 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.