Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Probability
52¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$269.18
Liquidity
$32.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 902.8h
- 09:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 903h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 51¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 51¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 51¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 51¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 51¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 51¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 50¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 51¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 51¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 47¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 52¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).