Empty-Tremor
0x20904fe4cae7766045e8a00092c67f3118acd42e
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$111.97
Total PnL
$-447.14
Realised
$-32.63
Win rate
5%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
37 shares @ 95.1¢·now 94.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$34.87
$-0.13
- YES
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
34 shares @ 17.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$33.98
$27.98
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?
16 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$15.63
$5.63
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
13 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$13.28
$9.29
- NO
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?
10 shares @ 31.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$9.99
$6.84
- YES
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.13
$1.13
- YES
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
199 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.89
$-2.11
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
12 shares @ 42.1¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.87
$-4.37
- YES
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 38.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.33
$-0.78
- NO
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?
1056 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.