Celebrated-Improvement
0x213716b563e8362d2253888aac8ae3a4e41f7dda
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$54.41
Total PnL
$-865.75
Realised
$-23.19
Win rate
0%
68 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- ANTHROPIC + OPENAI
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$38.50
$8.50
- YES
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OPAI?
26 shares @ 69.3¢·now 38.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$9.87
$-8.13
- YES
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
208 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$5.73
$0.73
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?
22 shares @ 45.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.29
$-9.71
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?
48 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.02
$-6.98
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
10000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-19.99
- YES
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
5500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
5500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Trump kiss by May 31?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
2700 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$59.52Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 68 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
68 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 68 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.