Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$676.30
Liquidity
$38.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4020h with open resolution ambiguity.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4019.6h
- 12:26SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4020h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 8¢+1.0pp
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Politics · Vol $1.9K
- 10¢0.0pp
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Other · Vol $219.47
- 3¢0.0pp
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Other · Vol $41.65
- 4¢-0.1pp
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Other · Vol $6.0K
- 1¢-0.1pp
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Other · Vol $1.4K
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Other · Vol $3.0K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Other · Vol $20.00
- 1¢-0.3pp
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Other · Vol $2.9K
- 2¢-2.8pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.0M
- 59¢-1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $716.2K
- 44¢+3.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $650.4K
- 13¢-27.0pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $616.3K
- 85¢0.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $566.2K
- 100¢+23.9pp
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $541.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
20 wallets- Shameful-Cinnamon6.2K
- 0x4e25…d7a73.8K
- Graceful-Purr3.1K
- Forthright-Kingfish2.9K
- Suspicious-Aid1.7K
- 0xa5ef…296630.6K
- Expensive-Struggle1.0K
- Terrible-Ordinary152
- Frequent-Study150
- Curly-Oval137