Watchful-Production
0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$608.52
Total PnL
$-719.26
Realised
$123.23
Win rate
58%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
329 shares @ 16.8¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$151.57
$96.14
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
112 shares @ 37.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$111.20
$69.91
- YES
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
693 shares @ 2.8¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$39.84
$20.39
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
59 shares @ 50.9¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$30.84
$0.95
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
32 shares @ 77.7¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.44
$-0.73
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.51
$0.36
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
26 shares @ 69.1¢·now 73.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.27
$1.14
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
19 shares @ 76.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.22
$3.64
- NO
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 71.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.73
$0.00
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
46 shares @ 40.5¢·now 33.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.26
$-3.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$4.78Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$6.29Jul 28, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$0.93Jul 28, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?$1.33Jul 27, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$10.98Jul 27, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$4.13Jul 27, 17:01 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$0.90Jul 27, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$0.83Jul 27, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$6.11Jul 26, 21:15 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$4.57Jul 26, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$6.08Jul 26, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$6.08Jul 26, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$2.42Jul 26, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$0.39Jul 25, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$5.62Jul 25, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$0.55Jul 25, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$1.10Jul 25, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$0.93Jul 25, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$6.05Jul 25, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1.16Jul 25, 14:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
31 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 07:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.