Watchful-Production
0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$609.26
Total PnL
$-472.64
Realised
$102.25
Win rate
58%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
5349 shares @ 8.9¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$294.22
$-180.19
- NO
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
35 shares @ 72.2¢·now 95.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$33.34
$8.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
32 shares @ 94.6¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$31.53
$1.36
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.22
$1.07
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
30 shares @ 47.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$18.59
$4.38
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
39 shares @ 37.6¢·now 45.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$17.76
$2.93
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
39 shares @ 31.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.17
$4.93
- NO
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
17 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.46
$0.28
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
28 shares @ 43.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.05
$4.05
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
17 shares @ 73.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.41
$3.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.30Jun 14, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$6.04Jun 13, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?$6.32Jun 13, 02:30 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$10.35Jun 12, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX list on the NYSE?$19.18Jun 12, 18:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?$6.08Jun 12, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$6.01Jun 12, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$6.00Jun 12, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.67Jun 12, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$6.06Jun 12, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$6.00Jun 12, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$6.00Jun 12, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$6.16Jun 12, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$6.04Jun 12, 09:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$26.93Jun 11, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$5.38Jun 11, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$6.15Jun 11, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$1.07Jun 11, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$6.15Jun 11, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?$5.25Jun 11, 18:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $5.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 17:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 11:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.