Wooden-Shift
0x21a7651eab912fc929a0fc1e19268755d6d24b39
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
46
Open notional
$725.29
Total PnL
$-16.82
Realised
$-7.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
200 shares @ 58.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$118.00
$2.00
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
200 shares @ 47.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$103.00
$9.00
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
126 shares @ 51.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$64.06
$0.00
- YES
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
40 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$33.20
$0.00
- NO
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.25B by August 31?
40 shares @ 70.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$28.00
$0.00
- NO
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?
31 shares @ 86.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$27.18
$0.77
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 2?
40 shares @ 47.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$22.40
$3.60
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?
50 shares @ 69.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$21.75
$-12.75
- NO
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
29 shares @ 70.2¢·now 69.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$19.83
$-0.34
- NO
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August?
50 shares @ 35.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.00
$1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Widow's Bay" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys?$2.40Aug 1, 15:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Widow's Bay" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys?$17.60Aug 1, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August?$17.50Aug 1, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?$11.80Aug 1, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$5.40Aug 1, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$7.80Aug 1, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026$5.00Aug 1, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.40Aug 1, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$172.00Aug 1, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$116.00Aug 1, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $454,000 and $462,000 on September 30?$5.40Aug 1, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$12.95Aug 1, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jack Grealish stay at Manchester City?$8.82Aug 1, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$21.55Aug 1, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$13.93Aug 1, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?$2.47Aug 1, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat?$8.75Aug 1, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?$5.60Aug 1, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?$3.94Aug 1, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal be acquired before 2027?$12.20Aug 1, 14:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $20.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 11:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 15:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.