Punctual-Sand
0x21d0c129deb8a7f7e1569045200d20e23862ce91
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$248.2K
Total PnL
$7.5K
Realised
$10.5K
Win rate
72%
143 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
34534 shares @ 96.9¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.3K
$-169.73
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
27038 shares @ 93.5¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.9K
$588.77
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
23197 shares @ 92.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.7K
$248.09
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
15958 shares @ 96.2¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.3K
$-23.22
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
9777 shares @ 92.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$9.6K
$557.31
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
9691 shares @ 88.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.9K
$299.96
- NO
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
8962 shares @ 90.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.3K
$158.18
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
7736 shares @ 93.7¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.4K
$156.35
- NO
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
7326 shares @ 92.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.0K
$204.41
- NO
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
7246 shares @ 91.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$6.8K
$223.13
Recent activity
- TRADESELLZohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?$76.00Aug 4, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$99.44Aug 4, 09:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$9.20Aug 4, 09:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?$30.73Aug 4, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?$18.15Aug 4, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?$48.36Aug 4, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$5.55Aug 4, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$6.00Aug 4, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$1.2KAug 4, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia coup attempt in 2026?$18.60Aug 4, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$2.55Aug 4, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$2.50Aug 4, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$2.54Aug 4, 01:41 UTC
- YIELD$4.41Aug 4, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$31.91Aug 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$23.92Aug 3, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$23.92Aug 3, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?$7.26Aug 3, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Oklahoma City Thunder be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?$1.75Aug 3, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?$38.44Aug 3, 21:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 143 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
143 closed markets, 72% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $110.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 01:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 10:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 143 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.