Winged-Copper
0x21eb5f1127b5f904cfc5ca4dffcb9375af9fa9fd
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$15.39
Total PnL
$-285.23
Realised
$-0.96
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch?
9 shares @ 14.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.40
$3.12
- YES
Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 19.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.90
$0.10
- YES
Will AVAX reach $8 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 32.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.30
$0.70
- YES
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.40
$-0.60
- YES
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
6 shares @ 32.1¢·now 20.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
10 shares @ 18.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.05
$-0.75
- YES
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
10 shares @ 23.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.85
$-1.45
- NO
Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?
21 shares @ 16.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.24
$-3.14
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59.5 and 60 million views in week 1?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 59.5 million views in week 1?
400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$14.17Jul 23, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$4.16Jul 23, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$7.80Jul 23, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$10.95Jul 23, 05:17 UTC
- REWARD$0.44Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.05Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?$7.71Jul 20, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 24?$5.05Jul 20, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$4.59Jul 20, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 24?$0.83Jul 20, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?$3.38Jul 20, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$8.67Jul 20, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$3.78Jul 20, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$3.99Jul 20, 05:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Captain" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$21.00Jul 20, 00:30 UTC
- REWARD$2.17Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance AND Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$4.71Jul 19, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Goal" 75+ times during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$3.80Jul 19, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Goal" 75+ times during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$1.34Jul 19, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance AND Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$1.00Jul 19, 16:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 03:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 05:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.