Antique-Downfall
0x21f90e5ff30c12f52fbb2fb220aa268f22faed12
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$27.2K
Total PnL
$-22.5K
Realised
$11.3K
Win rate
94%
70 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
20000 shares @ 2.4¢·now 13.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.6K
$2.2K
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
234408 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.0K
$172.76
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?
2000 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.9K
$70.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the OH-06 House seat?
2000 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.9K
$50.00
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
4394 shares @ 51.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.8K
$-417.41
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
2000 shares @ 78.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.7K
$170.00
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
7869 shares @ 0.8¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.6K
$1.5K
- NO
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
1400 shares @ 72.5¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$360.40
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
19990 shares @ 11.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.1K
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100000 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.0K
$-250.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.86Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.85Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.86Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.85Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.84Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.88Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.81Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.83Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.80Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.80Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.83Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.85Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.84Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.82Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.86Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.86Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.86Jul 9, 00:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 70 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
70 closed markets, 94% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 70 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.